Centre per a la Recerca i la Innovació Educativa (CERI) – Els escenaris de l’escolarització segons l’OCDE
El grup del CERI (Centre for Educational Research and Innovation) de l’OCDE ha desenvolupat una sèrie de sis possibles escenaris educatius per als propers anys (fins al 2020), agrupats en tres categories: manteniment del status quo, evolució (re-schooling), involució (de-schooling),. El valor que ells mateixos reconeixen l’exercici és el d’una eina per pensar sobre el que volem i sobre el que no volem …
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) – The OECD Schooling Scenarios in Brief
We have developed a set of six scenarios for schooling in the
future up to 2020. They have been clustered into three main categories:
Scenarios 1a and 1b “Attempting to Maintain the Status Quo”, 2a and 2b
“Re-schooling”, 3a and 3b “De-schooling”. This categorisation is
slightly different from that in our 2001 publication “What Schools for
the Future?” in Chapter 3, but the contents of the scenarios themselves
have not changed.
The scenarios describe in “pure form” how schooling might be overall
in a society, not individual schools or local developments. In reality,
one would expect complex mixes to emerge between these different
possible futures, rather than one or the other. By sharpening the
alternatives, their value is as a tool to think about what we want and
do not want, and how probable the more or less desired choices are in
terms of on-going trends and policies.
We would be very interested to have feedback from anyone who has used
these scenarios in conferences, workshops or policy-making.
1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO:
With the “status quo” scenarios, the basic features of existing
systems are maintained well into the future, whether from public choice
or from the inability to implement fundamental change. In Scenario 1.a,
the future unfolds as gradual evolution of the present with school
systems continuing to be strong; in Scenario 1.b, there is a major
crisis of the system triggered by acute teacher shortages.
Scenario 1.a: “Bureaucratic School Systems Continue”
This scenario is built on the continuation of powerfully bureaucratic
systems, strong pressures towards uniformity, and resistance to radical
change. Schools are highly distinct institutions, knitted together
within complex administrative arrangements. Political and media
commentaries are frequently critical in tone; despite the criticisms,
radical change is resisted. Many fear that alternatives would not
address fundamental tasks such as guardianship and socialisation,
alongside the goals relating to cognitive knowledge and diplomas, nor
deliver equality of opportunity.
- Learning and organisation: Curriculum and
qualifications are central areas of policy, and student assessments
are key elements of accountability, though questions persist over how
far these develop capacities to learn. Individual classroom and
teacher models remain dominant. - Management and governance: Priority is given to
administration and capacity to handle accountability pressures, with
strong emphasis on efficiency. The nation (state/province in federal
systems) remains central, but facing tensions due, for example, to
decentralisation, corporate interests in learning markets, and
globalisation. - Resources and infrastructure: No major increase in
overall funding, while continual extension of schools’ remits with new
social responsibilities further stretches resources. The use of ICT
continues to grow without changing schools’ main organisational
structures. - Teachers: A distinct teacher corps, sometimes with
civil service status; strong unions/associations but problematic
professional status and rewards.
Scenario 1.b “Teacher exodus – The ‘meltdown scenario'”
There would be a major crisis of teacher shortages, highly resistant
to conventional policy responses. It is triggered by a rapidly ageing
profession, exacerbated by low teacher morale and buoyant opportunities
in more attractive graduate jobs. The large size of the teaching force
makes improvements in relative attractiveness costly, with long lead
times for measures to show tangible results on overall numbers. Wide
disparities in the depth of the crisis by socio-geographic, as well as
subject, area. Very different outcomes could follow: at one extreme, a
vicious circle of retrenchment and conflict; at the other, emergency
strategies spur radical innovation and collective change.
- Learning and organisation: Where teacher
shortages are acute they have detrimental effects on student learning.
Widely different organisational responses to shortages – some
traditional, some highly innovative – and possibly greater use of ICT. - Management and governance: Crisis management
predominates. Even in areas saved the worst difficulties, a fortress
mentality prevails. National authorities are initially strengthened,
acquiring extended powers in the face of crisis, but weakened the
longer crises remain unresolved. A competitive international teaching
market develops apace. - Resources and infrastructure: As the crisis takes
hold, funds flow increasingly into salaries to attract more teachers,
with possible detrimental consequences for investments in areas such
as ICT and physical infrastructure. Whether these imbalances would be
rectified depends on strategies adopted to escape “meltdown” - Teachers: The crisis, in part caused by teaching’s
unattractiveness, would worsen with growing shortages, especially in
the most affected areas. General teacher rewards could well increase
as might the distinctiveness of the teacher corps in reflection of
their relative scarcity, though established arrangements may
eventually erode with “meltdown”.
2. RE-SCHOOLING:
The “re-schooling” scenarios would see major investments and
widespread recognition for schools and their achievements, including
towards the professionals, with a high priority accorded to both quality
and equity. In Scenario 2.a, the focus is on socialisation goals and
schools in communities, in certain contrast with the stronger knowledge
orientation of Scenario 2.b.
Scenario 2.a “Schools as Core Social Centres”
The school here enjoys widespread recognition as the most effective
bulwark against social, family and community fragmentation. It is now
heavily defined by collective and community tasks. This leads to
extensive shared responsibilities between schools and other community
bodies, sources of expertise, and institutions of further and continuing
education, shaping not conflicting with high teacher professionalism.
Generous levels of financial support needed to meet demanding
requirements for quality learning environments in all communities and to
ensure elevated esteem for teachers and schools.
- Learning and organisation: The focus of learning
broadens with more explicit attention given to non-cognitive outcomes,
values and citizenship. A wide range of organisational forms and
settings emerge, with strong emphasis on non-formal learning. - Management and governance: Management complex as the
school is in dynamic interplay with diverse community interests and of
formal and non-formal programmes. Leadership is widely distributed
and often collective. Strong local dimension of decision-making, while
drawing on well-developed national/international support frameworks,
particularly where social infrastructure weakest. - Resources and infrastructure: significant investments
would be made to update the quality of premises and equipment in
general, to open school facilities to the community, and to ensure
that the divides of affluence and social capital do not widen. ICT
used extensively, especially its communication capabilities. - Teachers: A core of high-status teaching
professionals, with varied contractual arrangements and conditions,
though with good rewards for all. Around this core would be many other
professionals, community players, parents, etc., and a blurring of
roles.
Scenario 2.b “Schools as Focused Learning Organisations”
Schools are revitalised around a strong knowledge rather than social
agenda, in a culture of high quality, experimentation, diversity, and
innovation. New forms of evaluation and competence assessment flourish.
ICT used extensively alongside other learning media, traditional and
new. Knowledge management to the fore, and the very large majority of
schools justify the label “learning organisations” (hence is equality of
opportunity the norm), with extensive links to tertiary education and
diverse other organisations.
- Learning and organisation: demanding expectations
for all for teaching and learning combines with widespread
development of specialisms and diversity of organisational forms.
Flourishing research on pedagogy and the science of learning is
systematically applied. - Management and governance: “Learning organisation”
schools characterised by flat hierarchy structures, using teams,
networks and diverse sources of expertise. Quality norms typically
replace regulatory and punitive accountability approaches.
Decision-making rooted strongly within schools and the profession,
with the close involvement of parents, organisations, and tertiary
education and with well-developed guiding frameworks and support
systems. - Resources and infrastructure: substantial investments
in all aspects of schooling, especially in disadvantaged communities,
to develop flexible, state-of-the-art facilities. Extensive use made
of ICT. The partnerships with organisations and tertiary education
enhance the diversity of educational plant and facilities. - Teachers: Highly motivated enjoying favourable
conditions, with strong emphasis on R&D, continuous professional
development, group activities, networking (including internationally).
Contractual arrangements might well be diverse, with mobility in and
out of teaching.
3. DE-SCHOOLING:
Rather than high status and generous resourcing for schools, the
dissatisfaction of a range of key players leads to the dismantling of
school systems, to a greater or lesser degree. In Scenario 3.a, new
forms of co-operative networks come to predominate, compared with the
competitive mechanisms of Scenario 3.b.
Scenario 3.a “Learning Networks and the Network Society”
Dissatisfaction with institutionalised provision and expression given
to diversified demand leads to the abandonment of schools in favour of a
multitude of learning networks, quickened by the extensive
possibilities of powerful, inexpensive ICT. The de-institutionalisation,
even dismantling, of school systems as part of the emerging “network
society”. Various cultural, religious and community voices to the fore
in the socialisation and learning arrangements for children, some very
local in character, others using distance and cross-border networking.
- Learning and organisation: Greater expression
given to learning for different cultures and values through networks
of community interests. Small group, home schooling and individualised
arrangements become widespread. - Management and governance: With schooling assured
through inter-locking networks, authority becomes widely diffused.
There is a substantial reduction of existing patterns of governance
and accountability, though public policy responsibilities might still
include addressing the “digital divide”, some regulation and
framework-setting, and overseeing remaining schools. - Resources and infrastructure: There would be a
substantial reduction in public facilities and institutionalised
premises. Whether an overall reduction in learning resources is hard
to predict, though major investments in ICT could be expected.
Diseconomies of small scale, with schooling organised by groups and
individuals, might limit new investments. - Teachers: there is no longer reliance on particular
professionals called “teachers”: the demarcations between teacher and
student, parent and teacher, education and community, blur and
sometimes break down. New learning professionals emerge, whether
employed locally to teach or as consultants.
Scenario 3.b “Extending the Market Model”
Existing market features in education are significantly extended as
governments encourage diversification in a broader environment of
market-led change. This fuelled by dissatisfaction by “strategic
consumers” in cultures where schooling is commonly viewed as a private
as well as a public good. Many new providers are stimulated to come into
the learning market, encouraged by thoroughgoing reforms of funding
structures, incentives and regulation. Flourishing indicators, measures,
and accreditation arrangements start to displace direct public
monitoring and curriculum regulation. Innovation abounds as do painful
transitions and inequalities.
- Learning and organisation: The most valued
learning is importantly determined by choices and demands – whether of
those buying educational services or of those, such as employers,
giving market value to different forms learning routes. A strong focus
on non-cognitive outcomes and values might be expected to emerge.
Wide organisational diversity. - Management and governance: There is a substantially
reduced role for public education authorities – overseeing market
regulation but less involvement through organising provision or
“steering” and “monitoring” – and entrepreneurial management modes are
more prominent. Important roles for information and guidance services
and for indicators and competence assessments that provide market
“currency”. - Resources and infrastructure: Funding arrangements and
incentives are critical in shaping learning markets and determining
absolute levels of resources. A wide range of market-driven changes
would be introduced into the ownership and running of the learning
infrastructure, some highly innovative and with the extensive use of
ICT. Problems might be the diseconomies of scale and the inequalities
associated with market failure. - Teachers: New learning professionals – public,
private; full-time, part-time – are created in the learning markets,
and new training and accreditation opportunities would emerge for
them. Market forces might see these professionals in much readier
supply in areas of residential desirability and/or learning market
opportunity than elsewhere.
